Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu is well-positioned to win a fifth term as premier (and fourth consecutive term) if new elections were held today, a new poll shows, with the Likud projected to win more than twice as many seats as its closest competitor.
According to a new poll produced by Panels Politics and published by Walla News, if new elections were held today, the Likud would gain four seats, rising from the 30 mandates it won in 2015 to 34, making it by far the largest party in the Knesset.
The Zionist Union, by comparison, which is currently the second largest party in the Knesset, would fall from 24 seats to just 10 under the leadership of party chief Avi Gabbay. The Zionist Union, formed ahead of the 2015 election, is a joint list including the Labor Party and the smaller Hatnuah faction of former Kadima party chairwoman Tzipi Livni.
Former Finance Minister Yair Lapid’s Yesh Atid faction would come the second largest party if new elections were held today, rising from 11 seats to 16 – a significant decline from polling in 2016 and 2017, when Yesh Atid was projected to win 22-27 seats.
Education Minister Naftali Bennett’s Jewish Home party would win 11 seats – 3 more than it currently holds, while Finance Minister Moshe Kahlon’s Kulanu party would fall from 10 seats to just 6.
Defense Minister Avigdor Liberman’s Yisrael Beytenu party, which won six seats in 2015 but lost one seat when MK Orly Levy split from the party in 2016, would win six seats if new elections were held today.
The haredi factions would win a combined 13 seats, the poll projected, the same as the two parties currently hold combined. The Sephardic Shas party, however, would lose two seats, falling to five mandates, while the Ashkenazi United Torah Judaism would gain two seats, rising to eight mandates.
A new party led by former Yisrael Beytenu MK Orly Levy would win six seats, the same number of seats as the far-left Meretz faction is projected to win.
The predominantly Arab Joint List party, which currently holds 13 seats, would fall to 12 seats if new elections were held today.
The Panels Politics survey also offered a special scenario poll, asking respondents how they would vote if the Likud and Yisrael Beytenu ran on a joint “Likud Beytenu” list, as they did in 2013.
A joint Likud Beytenu list would win 36 seats, the poll found, just two more than the Likud would by itself if the two ran separately, and four less than the combined 40 mandates the parties are projected to win if they remain apart.
In 2013, the two parties ran on a joint list, winning a disappointing 31 seats, despite early predictions the union could net as many as 45 mandates.
If the two formed a joint list for the next election, Kulanu would win eight seats, as opposed to six if the Likud and Yisrael Beytenu ran separately. Orly Levy’s new party would also win eight seats in such a scenario.
