Dr. Aaron Lerner heads IMRA - Independent Media Review and Analysis, since 1992 providing news and analysis on the Middle East with a focus on Arab-Israeli relations
The real question isn't who's going to be in charge in Gaza "the day after."
Because "the day after" is after Hamas has been crushed. And no Israeli official ever claimed that this mission would be completed any time soon.
So, the operative question is not what entity or combination of entities will run the Gaza Strip sometime in the future.
The question is who runs the place this afternoon, this summer, and most likely in 2025 while we continue clearing out Hamas.
2025?!?
It took 264 days to free Mosul - (180 square kilometers, around 1.6 million population, longest terror tunnel around 3.2 kilometers) - from ISIS.
The Gaza Strip is twice the size.
And Hamas is exploiting an underground network larger than the London Underground.
And they benefit from a huge flow of weapons and ammunition from Egypt (who turned a blind eye for years?) which is being cut off, but has yet to be cut off completely.
So, again, the real question is who runs the place until "the day after."
Because if the answer is "no one," Hamas will.
And if the answer is that a local alternative will run the place until "the day after," they will be slaughtered and Hamas will continue runnng the place.
And if the answer is some combination of foreign countries, that means a "permanent ceasefire" with Hamas ultimately in power.
The Coordination of Government Activities in the Territories (COGAT), which oversaw cargo entering Gaza before the Disengagement and afterwards, is going to have to run the show in the Gaza Strip at least until "the day after."
This won't win any politician any points.
But them's the breaks.