The Israeli Conundrum

In a recent article, I wrote:

"Ethnic homogenization is intended to avoid creating “Cleft nations” which are inherently unstable. "

“A cleft nation is one in which the major ethnic groups are so clearly separate from one another in terms of values that it is difficult to form a national culture. These groups tend to be insulated from one another, particularly if they do not share the same or similar religions and value systems.”

I continued:

"The only way to bring stability to Israel is to remove the cleft and enable ethnic homogenization as far as it is possible."

But even if we share the same religion, we don’t necessarily, share the same values. Such differences can lead to civil war and secession. The American Civil War is one such example.

Dan Perry, formerly, Chairman of the Foreign Press Association in Jerusalem, recently wrote in JPost that Israel's biggest issues are settlers and haredi birthrate,

"The effort to weaken the court system and eliminate judicial oversight has two key motivations:

"First, there is the Right’s historic project of welding Israel to the West Bank through ever-larger Jewish settlement. Liberal Israel hates this both for the moral turpitude of oppressing millions of Palestinians, and because of the demographic outcome of diluting Israel’s Jewish majority (a Zionist consideration that in a rational world might also trouble the nationalist Right).

"The Right, or at least the unapologetic far-Right, wants to annex the land without offering citizenship to the people and needs the courts out of the way to enable such a benighted arrangement. I make no excuse for the Palestinian maximalism and shortsightedness that caused their leadership to squander opportunities for peace – but down this way lies madness.

"Second, there is the issue of the haredim, who now comprise almost a fifth of the country. They are expanding all the time, with an average of seven children per family; refusing to teach youngsters math, science, and English; expecting the secular state to pay the masses of yeshiva students stipends; and refusing to serve in the military. The court potentially stands in the way of the haredi special dispensations on grounds of equality, and the Right does not have, and never has had, a majority without the haredi parties – and so the court must go."

I think he mischaracterizes what is at stake in Judea and Samaria. Yes the Right wants to annex all of Judea and Samaria including the Jordan Valley but they are not alone. Bottom line for a large majority of Israelis is that Israel must control both the highlands and the Jordan Valley for security reasons. Israelis do not want a repeat of what happened as a result of disengaging from Gaza.

But their desire to do so is not limited to security reasons. Israel has the legal right to it and a very significant historical connection to it. The latter was recognized in the Palestine Mandate.

“Whereas recognition has thereby [i.e. by the Treaty of Sèvres] been given to the historical connection of the Jewish people with Palestine, and to the grounds for reconstituting their national home in that country”

He ignored the fact that the Palestinian Arabs led by Fatah or Hamas want to end the existence of the State of Israel and back the “resistance” and are thus our mortal enemy. The most he can say is that he makes no excuse for the Palestinian Arab "maximalism” whatever that is, and “shortsightedness that caused their leadership to squander opportunities for peace – but down this way lies madness.”

The reason they did so was because they were not interested in peace. Their goal is to end our existence. There is no “moral turpitude” in oppressing an enemy who is determined to kill you. What oppression there is, is a natural result of their “resistance”.

The Palestinian Arabs are Jordanian citizens so there is no obligation to give them citizenship when we annex the land. I fully support a Jewish Majority, the larger the better, and make no apologies. The left would have us separate from the Palestinian Arabs, rather than have them live among us, and therefore advocates for a two-state solution.

As for the Heredi growth issue, he argues:

"Because of the spectacular (and reckless) haredi birthrate, and the community’s determination to continue as it is, there is a clear danger to Israel’s viability as a modern society and viable economy. We are looking at a highly combustible culture war,"

I share his concern and feel that more of the Heredim mus start contributing to Israel’s economy in a meaningful way, like they do in New York In other words, more of them must get out of the wagon and help to pull it.

It is not a stretch to blame the Center-left for this problem. Rather than maintain solidarity with their anti-Bibi coalition, the National Union under Gideon Saar should have moved to the right and joined Likud in forming the government so that it wouldn’t be dependent on UTJ and Shas.

Perry suggests that because of the Haredi birthrate, the forces of religious authoritarianism will is so distasteful to the liberal left, that different options will present themselves.

"Mass emigration of the liberals

"These liberals, who are at least half and perhaps somewhat more than half of the 10 million population, will not agree to live in a country that is undemocratic (because of a permanent oppression of the Palestinian Arabs), and increasingly resembles Iran (because of the haredim and allied nationalist-religious extremists).

"My guess is that the rump, religious, impoverished Israel that remains, which would retain little of the excellence of Israel today, will eventually be overrun by the Palestinian Arabs.

"A split in the right that changes the game

"But there are also scenarios that enable classic Zionism to be saved. The most desirable one, from the perspective of those yearning to preserve Israel as it is, is for a significant proportion of the one-quarter of Israelis who support Likud to seek to break their alliance with the haredim and the far-Right. [..]

"Partition into a Western liberal state and a religious-authoritarian state

"The coastal strip from the Tel Aviv area to the Haifa area contains half the population and would be an overwhelmingly liberal, secular, Western-oriented, highly prosperous, and almost totally Jewish state. It accounts for the overwhelming majority of the GDP, and it is carrying the other parts of the country with which it is in increasingly bitter conflict.

"This could happen in a moderate option, involving federalization or cantonization – but I can also imagine genuine partition. Were it not for the difficulty of defending such a smaller country from attack, it is almost a no-brainer that the coast needs to break off from the rest of the country. The people in Jerusalem and the periphery would be free to be just as “conservative” as they want, and good luck with the Palestinians.

"Civil war

"This scenario is too horrifying to contemplate, so most Israelis do not. Yet Israel has the classic characteristics of societies that are at risk of civil war: lack of a consensus on power-sharing arrangements, deep-seated ethnic and religious divisions, and regional and sectarian tensions. […]

"Military coup

"For decades, the security establishment has been far more dovish than politicians and the public. That is not a conspiracy – it’s because the military, Mossad, Shin Bet, and even the police are, to date, meritocracies, and their intelligent leaders (none Haredi, most secular) know the facts on the ground. Their understanding aligns with that of their equivalents in the business, scientific, academic, and media elites. […]

"So I urge everyone to consider the scenarios above, and choose which would they like. Or at least dislike the least."

Anything is possible. I believe that that both the Haredi issue and the Palestinian Arab issue are solvable.(see the Jordan Option). I am not so sure about the divide between those Israelis who see themselves as the elites and the rest of the population, so evident in the recent anti-judicial demonstrations..

Ted Belman is a retired attorney and the editor of Israpundit. He made aliya in 2009 and is now living in Jerusalem