This past Friday's edition of the haredi Hamodia (tied to the Agudat Yisrael party) reports that Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu will meet President Biden a week after the Jewish New Year.
According to Hamodia, as part of the deal for Saudi recognition of the Jewish State, Netanyahu has agreed to a multi-year Jewish construction freeze in Judea and Samaria along with the formation of another "civilian" Palestinian Arab security force for the PA.
The paper further claims that this deal will get Knesset approval based on votes from the opposition and that following the vote Netanyahu will facilitate new elections in which he will not run. In exchange for leaving public life all charges would be dropped against Binyamin Netanyahu.
In contrast, the same day, the Wall Street Journal reported that the Palestinian Arabs have reduced their demands to minor border changes (apparently moving the border of Area B so that neighborhoods of Palestinian Arab communities inside area B which have expanded into Area C will be within area B) along with demolishing a number of "illegal" Jewish outposts (something which the IDF does pretty much every week).
One explanation which has been offered for the contrasting "concessions" is that the construction freeze and new Palestinian Arab fighting force is to placate Democrat senators so that they will support American concessions to the Saudis.
A more cynical explanation is that even the most radical members of Binyamin Netanyahu's ruling coalition could stomach the Palestinian Arab demands as described by the Wall Street Journal, such that Netanyahu would find himself ending his career in two years with the public remembering him for his
government's performance rather than the Saudi deal.
Again, according to the very cynical narrative, having a deal which the ruling coalition opposes, which then leads to new elections, would insure Netanyahu's place in the history books.
- If Netanyahu were to leave public life without elections (which would also mean all charges being dropped against him), the Likud could form a broad stable ruling coalition and the Likudnik who heads it might bring the Likud to a victory in the 2026 elections which surpass Netanyahu's greatest victory.
- On the other hand, if Netanyahu were to leave the stage immediately after a Saudi deal with snap elections, there is a reasonable possibility that whoever then heads the Likud would not have the time to gain the stature to bring the Likud to victory with the Likud, then in Netanyahu's absence, garnering less than the 19 seats under Netanyahu in the failed 1999 elections. This would serve a proof that the Likud is nothing without Netanyahu.
I want to make clear that I am not embracing these scenarios or reports. Just sharing what cynics are thinking.
Dr. Aaron Lernerand his late father Dr. Joseph Lerner founded the Independent Media Review and Analysis (IMRA) government accredited news organization in 1992,which provides an ongoing analysis of developments in Arab-Israeli relations.
