The White House announced that there already exists a basic framework for an agreement between Saudi Arabia and Israel, which corresponds well with the publicity recently given to the progress of the talks towards an agreement.
The Saudi heir to the throne, Mohammed bin Salman, clarified that he will be willing to be flexible on the Palestinian issue, but the defense alliance with the Americans is important to him. Israel National News discussed the Saudi interests and the Israeli price involved in the agreement with Dr. Michal Yaari, a Saudi Arabia expert from the Open University and Ben Gurion University.
Regarding what appears to be bin Salman's negation of the commitment to the idea of a Palestinian state, Dr. Yaari said that ultimately it is only natural that every country will put its own interests before other interests. However, "unlike other countries, Saudi Arabia led the Palestinian struggle to establish a state. This was the case with the various Saudi peace initiatives. For many years they always said that they would take care of their Palestinian brothers. Now there is a special situation that we did not think we would see because we always thought that if there was a peace agreement it would be between Israel and Saudi Arabia, and now we see that it is a much broader and more significant agreement, with the most significant part of it being the part between Saudi Arabia and the United States."
In this aspect, Yaari said, "The Saudis say they really want the agreement to come to fruition and will do everything possible to make it happen. If the result is that we have to sacrifice the Palestinian issue, it is not a bad thing because we will receive a huge thing in return."
To this, Yaari added a comment according to which the US might oppose the agreement if it does not include a response to the Palestinian demands. Whether this opposition will be significant or weak, Yaari did not elaborate, as she is not an expert on American politics.
Regarding the Saudi ties with Israel, Dr. Yaari pointed out that this is a longstanding relationship that has been known for at least twenty years, when representatives of the Mossad met with officials in the Saudi royal palace and relations between the countries were established even without an agreement. This was convenient for the two countries, which were operating under the media radar, giving them broad maneuvering space without public pressure from either side.
Is there even a possibility of public pressure on the royal palace the day after the publication of the connections? Is Saudi Arabia a country that addresses such objections? Yaari agreed that indeed, since it is not a democratic country, any decision of the heir to the throne is accepted and implemented, but nevertheless it is clear to the royal palace that in order to ensure its governmental stability and to prevent a situation in which the royal palace will collapse after a few decades, as has happened in other Muslim countries, it is appropriate to promote such dramatic moves from as broad an agreement as possible.
She assessed that at the end of the day "the sentiment towards the Palestinian problem on the Saudi street continues to exist, but the Saudi citizen is interested in many other things."
INN mentioned to Dr. Yaari that the Egyptian precedent proved that the peace agreement was not annulled even when the government fell into the hands of the most extreme forces. Can we not assume that this will happen also in the Saudi case if a revolution takes place? Yaari also mentioned the Turkish precedent, where Israel's security interests were affected when relations deteriorated between Israel and Turkey.
She further added that while the peace with Egypt and Jordan is cold and estranged, there is hope for a warm and vibrant peace with Saudi Arabia, one that will overshadow even the agreement with the Emirates. For that to happen all burning and painful issues must be discussed and not covered up.
Regarding the Palestinian issue, Dr. Yaari believes that the Israeli government is wrong when it belittles the Palestinians and mocks them for being left out of the agreement. She believes it would be correct for the Prime Minister to clarify that as of now the issue will not be resolved, but he is sensitive to the issue that worries many in the Arab world and hopes that in the future it will be possible to reach some kind of agreement. Such a statement would have shown a level of humanity that would have conveyed messages in a much better way to the Arab world.
Dr. Yaari was also asked about the dominance of the royal family in Saudi Arabia, and she responded that, unlike other Muslim countries where the government is in the hands of a minority that dictates its opinion and power, it seems that the Saudi royal palace enjoys very broad support. The only opponents to the heir to the Saudi throne come from close by, since his appointment was not immediate, but the government is very stable and the Saudi population loves him very much for the changes he has made in their lifestyles, mainly in sports, culture, tourism, music, the status of women, and more, even if in other areas the royal family has behaved despicably.
Considering all these, INN asked Dr. Yaari what price Israel might have to pay for an agreement where the two biggest beneficiaries are the other giant partners, Saudi Arabia and the US. "Until the agreement is signed, we won't know," Yaari said, adding that "initially we estimated that there would be concessions for the Palestinians, but then bin Salman spoke and did not talk about solving the Palestinian problem, but about improving the lives of the Palestinians and nothing beyond that. When he speaks in such terms, the compensation for the Palestinians will probably be very very limited and in fact Israel will receive a reality-changing agreement here for a very low price, if at all."
