The Jewish People Policy Institute (JPPI) released its monthly Israeli Society Index today, examining public perceptions on various issues, marking one year since the war began. Some key findings include:
55% of Israelis believe that the war is prolonged due to the coalition’s political considerations.
76% believe that the government did not make decisions quickly enough.
The survey showed increased confidence in Israel’s military strength and the likelihood of victory, but also a decline in confidence in its economic strength.
More than half of the public (55%) believe that the war is being prolonged due to political interests of the coalition. 39% of Jewish Israelis agree; while a much higher figure of 69% of Arab Israelis agree.
As expected, a strong majority among coalition party voters disagree with this claim. 84% of Likud voters, 90% of Religious Zionist Party voters, 94% of Shas voters, and 85% of United Torah Judaism voters disagree. In contrast, a majority of opposition party voters agree or somewhat agree with the claim.
Most Israelis do not see that the war is going to end within a few weeks, with 31% believing that the war will continue for a few more months, and 44% thinking it will last for a year or more. Some even estimate it could extend up to two years.
A significant majority of respondents (53% agree and 23% somewhat agree), with substantial differences based on political affiliation and religiosity level, think the war is dragging on because the government did not make decisions quickly enough. However, even a majority among right-wing groups agree with this statement (60% of those identifying as "right" and 67% identifying as "center-right").
Most Israelis state that international intervention, or global interference, hindered the war’s progress, preventing Israel from completing its objectives (over 60% of the general public, and 68% of Jews).
A 57% majority also "agree" or "somewhat agree" that the war has dragged on because there were no clear and realistic objectives set to bring it to a close.
Public Opinion on Hostage Return
Just over one quarter of the Jewish public believes the only way to bring the hostages back home is to win the war (27%). Almost one third (32%) feel that Israel has abandoned the hostages. At the same time, 36% say that the hostages haven't been returned because there is no deal Hamas will agree to.
The ideological split shows that the dominant view on the center and left is that Israel has "abandoned the hostages" (85% of those identifying as left-wing believe this), while the majority on the center-right believe that no deal can be made (53%), and on the right, the prevailing opinion is that victory is a precondition for the hostages' release (60% of right-wingers).
Chance of Victory
Following recent IDF successes in Lebanon, public confidence has significantly risen in the IDF’s senior command, and, consequently, confidence in the chances of winning the war. The survey shows that the percentage of those "totally confident" that Israel will win the war rose from 28% in early September to 39% in the latest survey.
This increase occurred after two weeks of IDF operational successes in Lebanon, but before the assassination of Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah and the second missile attack from Iran. Confidence in victory increased mainly among right-wing (right and center-right) groups, constituting the majority of Israel’s Jewish population, but those identifying as center-left also expressed a noticeable increase.
Confidence in the IDF
This month also saw a parallel increase in confidence in the senior command of the IDF, with the percentage of those reporting a "very high" level of confidence in the IDF command increasing from 9% last month to 21% in this survey and those expressing "somewhat high" or "very high" confidence in the IDF command rising from a total of 44% a month ago to 59% now. This rise was evident across all population groups but was more pronounced in the center-right and left cohorts.
JPPI President, Professor Yedidia Stern: “The survey results once again show that Israeli society is polarized along political lines. Despite a slight increase in optimism, seen in confidence in the IDF’s strength and Israel's chances of winning the war, the survey findings that the war continues because of political interests, together with low trust in the police, must not be overlooked. The public feels that the war's objectives are neither clear nor realistic enough. As shown in the survey, Israelis strongly feel ‘concern’ one year into the war, therefore, it is top priority to strengthen public cohesion at present times.”