The Middle East is fraught with complex ironies. A notable irony is that Islam means “submission” or “surrender,” yet in the wars with Hamas and Hezbollah, the only discussion is about “ceaseless ceasefires, never victory or surrender.
Adding to the irony, the Arabic root “s-l-m” is also the root for “salaam,” meaning peace. Yet, during the last 75 years, the Palestinians have rejected multiple peace offers. In traditional warfare, the party facing inevitable defeat “sues for peace”, which means accepting less favorable terms imposed by the victor to avoid destruction and to preserve their people’s lives and resources. Ironically, in the Middle East wars, it is the victor, Israel, who is required to sue for peace.
So why do Hamas and Hezbollah refuse to surrender, which would end the current war’s devastation of their people? The answer is that religious surrender means submission and obedience to Allah’s will, which radical Islam interprets as requiring the annihilation and elimination of Israel. For the extreme Islamists, defeat is viewed as weakness and humiliation. Victory by Jews contravenes their radical understanding of Allah’s divine will expressed in the Koran and Hadith
The wages of war fought to victory are great; the “wages of ceaseless ceasefires” will be greater.
Here is why. As with Germany and Japan in W.W. II, unless completely defeated militarily the radical Islamists will never surrender and will resume the project to annihilate Israel. Islam specialist Raymond Ibrahim noted in the Middle East Quarterly that peace “treaties” with infidels can last no longer than 10 years. The precedent for this is based on the 10-year Treaty of Hudaybiya in 628 C.E. between Mohammed and his Quraysh opponents in Mecca. The sole purpose of such agreements is to buy time to strengthen weakened Islamic forces for future offensives. This so-called treaty ended after only 2-years because of an alleged infraction by the Meccans.
The timing of Arab-Israeli wars since 1948 supports that this ancient precedent is being followed. The 1948 War of Independence was initiated by Arab rejection of peace and was followed by the 1956 Suez Crisis (8 years later); the Six-Day War in 1967 (11 years later); the Yom Kippur War in 1973 (6 years later); the First Lebanon War in 1982 (9 years later); the First Intifada in 1987 (5 years later); the Second Intifada in 2000 (13 years later); the Second Lebanon War in 2006 (6 years later); the Gaza War & Israeli Operations from 2008 to 2014 (2 years later); Hamas attack in 2023 (9 years later).
History rarely provides reasonably precise mathematical patterns. These can be explained by concluding that the current jihadist policy of pursuing ceasefires for fewer than ten years is to strengthen the weakened forces for the next battle.
The implication of this for the current wars is clear. The American-French plan forced yet another instance of “ceaseless ceasefires”. The terms “victory” and “surrender” are never floated even though the conditions for an Israeli victory are in sight. Although the ideology of Hamas and Hezbollah can’t be eliminated, at least for now, an implicit surrender can occur if Israel is allowed to pursue total victory.
This is the general sentiment of the northern residents who have more skin in the game because they endure rocket attacks and threats of cross-border invasions. Kiryat Shmona mayor Avichai Stern views the new ceasefire as a surrender, not by Hezbollah but by Israel! He warns that it could lead to another October 7th. “I don’t understand how we went from total victory to total surrender”, he stated and questioned, “Why aren’t we finishing what we started?!” (The Print, 11/25/2024).
Some opine that total victory with Hamas and Hezbollah is an illusory dream. But every Israeli knows Theodor Herzl’s famous quote, “If you will it, it is no dream”. The conditions to transform the dream into reality are explicit in the traditional criteria of military victory:
- Military dominance is achieved by the defeat of the enemy’s forces, so they are unable to continue fighting.
- Control of key economic and/or strategic territory that indicates defeat of the enemy.
- Breakdown of the enemy’s political leadership, regime change, or loss of the will to fight.
- Economic depletion to the point that the enemy can’t continue the war effort.
- Diplomatic negotiations that formally terminate the war in favor of a victor (italics added).
Eighty percent of Hezbollah’s rockets have been eliminated, Southern Lebanon is under control, over two thousand of its members, including most key commanders, have been killed, and despite financial support from Iran and illicit activities, the losses estimated to be $8.5 billion have created severe economic strain.
The mathematics of Middle East wars demonstrate that another war will follow within no more than ten years. In the long run, the “wages of ceasefire” will be greater than the wages of finishing the war. Let Israel take a true win.
Dr. Robert M. Schwartz is a psychologist and former Assistant Professor of Psychiatry and Psychology at the University of Pittsburgh School of Medicine. He has published pioneering scientific articles on positive psychology, as well as political and social commentaries in the American Spectator, the American Thinker, Arutz Sheva, Christian Science Monitor, Pittsburgh Post-Gazette, Jerusalem Post, and others. He can be contacted at [email protected]