לוחמים בצפון הרצועה
לוחמים בצפון הרצועהצילום: Oren Cohen/Flash90

Hamas’ leaders are dead. Its battalions are smashed. 20,000 of its fighters are dead, with thousands more injured or in prison. Its rocket arsenal has been reduced to a few hundred at most. Its ally Hezbollah is in shambles and unable to help it anymore. Its masters and sponsors in Tehran are reeling from losses throughout the region, the destruction of their air defenses, and an economic crisis that will make rebuilding from this war far more difficult for Hamas than previous conflicts. Hamas has 5 days until the deadline set by the next American President to release its hostages or there will be “all hell to pay.”

With everything that is going against Hamas, this is the best deal Israel and the US could come up with?

Rather than release all 98 remaining hostages at once, the emerging deal would see Hamas keep two-thirds of the hostages in the first stage, allowing it to maintain it blackmail power and prolong the overall hostage crisis. The details of the hostages who would be released in later stages would not even be set, as they would be negotiated during the implementation of the first stage. This means that there is no guarantee that any more hostages will be released after the first group of 33.

One would be forgiven for thinking Yahya Sinwar and Ismail Haniyeh are still alive. This is not a deal an organization that has suffered losses as grievous as Hamas has, that fears there will be “all hell to pay,” should be able to reach with nations as powerful as Israel and the US.

In exchange for 33 hostages, Israel will release a thousand terrorists from prison, including many serving life sentences for murder and mass murder, the worst of the worst. While these mass murderers will be deported out of the country rather than released into Judea, Samaria, and Gaza, this will give Hamas fresh troops with which to rebuild it battalions and prepare for the next war.

At least no terrorist who participated in the October 7 massacre will be released. The negotiators accomplished that much.

Part of the problem is that the attempt to reach a “deal” was misguided and counterproductive from the start. The goal of both Israel and the US should have always been the unconditional surrender of Hamas. Since Israel has rarely expressed that goal and the US never has, perhaps this truly is the best we could have expected.

Unlike previous conflicts, Hamas is truly battered and broken this time. Its popularity in Gaza is at an all-time low because much of the population rightly blames it for bringing this war on them and for stealing much of the humanitarian aid that has been sent into Gaza for itself. Reconstituting itself would take longer than after the 2009 and 2014 conflicts simply because its losses are orders of magnitude greater than they were before. And Iran’s recent troubles may ensure that Hamas cannot rebuild itself into a significant threat for an even longer period.

However, the fact that a conversation can be had at all about how long it will take Hamas to rebuild is a problem in and of itself. Hamas will claim victory. It will see that its strategy of causing as much destruction and death among its own people and blaming Israel worked. Worst of all, it will learn that hostage-taking is the most effective strategy to use against Israel and will take more hostages in the future.

Kfir Bibas, who was nine months old when he was kidnapped on October 7, will turn two this Saturday. Presumably, he and his five-year-old brother Ariel will be among the 33 hostages who will be released in the first phase of this deal, if the "humanitarian" designation has any meaning. But what if they are not? Or worse, what if they are no longer alive, as some fear? How can Israel end the war with their kidnappers and killers still in power, celebrating their “victory” over the Jews? How can the war end like that?

There will be no peace for Israel, for the Palestinian Arabs, or the world as long as Hamas remains in power in Gaza and a significant force in Arab society and politics. This deal may end the fighting for now, but it will pave the way for more terrorism, kidnappings, and death in the years to come, and if the Biden Administration’s goal was to facilitate the creation of a Palestinian Arab state, this deal to save Hamas will set that goal back many years.

Maybe this really is the best deal that was possible at this time. If so, that is an indictment against the leaders on both sides of the Atlantic.

Gary Willig is a veteran member of the Arutz Sheva news staff.