The remnants of an Iranian missile
The remnants of an Iranian missileIDF Spokesperson

As Israel faces an uncertain geopolitical landscape and a Gazan ceasefire, the urgency for decisive action has never been greater. With less than a week remaining before the Trump administration enters the White House, Israel must seize this narrow window of opportunity to topple the Iranian regime and dismantle its ideological and nuclear ambitions. Delaying action will place Israel in a precarious position, constrained by shifting American foreign policy priorities and increasing international pressure to make concessions.

The Warning from Uzi Dayan

Former Deputy Chief of Staff Major General (Res.) Uzi Dayan recently issued a stark warning about the incoming Trump administration's stance. Dayan pointed out that Trump's emissaries have already begun pressuring Israel for a ceasefire in Gaza. He was right.

Notably, this pressure is asymmetrical; it has not been applied to Hamas, nor has the U.S. leveraged its influence over Qatar, Hamas’s key financial backer. Instead, the new administration appears to have prioritized its perceived strategic and economic interests over Israel’s security.

This dynamic reflects a broader trend in Trump's foreign policy—a tendency to prioritize optics and political expediency over long standing alliances. For Israel, this signals a need to act decisively before it becomes a pawn in broader U.S. strategic realignments.

The Shadow of Jeffrey Sachs

Adding to this concern is Trump’s recent amplification of conspiracy theorist Jeffrey Sachs, who has blamed Israel and Prime Minister Netanyahu for embroiling the U.S. in Middle Eastern conflicts. By sharing such narratives, Trump reveals a willingness to entertain perspectives that are not only critical of Israel but also diminish its strategic importance to U.S. interests.

This marks a sharp departure from the unwavering support Israel enjoyed during Trump’s first term and underscores the need for Israel to shape its own destiny.

The Bipartisan Shift Against Neoconservatism

Compounding the challenge is the growing bipartisan consensus in the U.S. against neoconservative foreign policy. Within the Republican Party, the MAGA wing has expressed open hostility toward interventionist policies, aligning itself with an isolationist agenda. Meanwhile, the progressive wing of the Democratic Party has been vocal in its criticism of Israeli policies, advocating for a recalibration of U.S.-Israel relations.

Together, these forces could enable Trump to pursue a peace deal rooted in the 2002 Saudi Peace Plan, which calls for a two-state solution based on pre-1967 borders.

Such a deal, while seemingly pragmatic, poses an existential threat to Israel. It would leave Israel vulnerable to Iranian aggression, particularly if Tehran uses its nuclear capabilities to deliver a “mortal blow” once Israel is diplomatically and territorially weakened. The fact that this plan would garner widespread support from the UN, EU, Russia, China, and the Arab world makes it an attractive option for a Trump administration seeking global legitimacy.

The Weakening of Pro-Israel Advocacy

The potential for such a dramatic shift in U.S. policy is further exacerbated by the diminishing influence of Evangelical Christians and the American Jewish community in shaping pro-Israel foreign policy. Fragmentation within these groups has weakened their ability to counterbalance the rising anti-interventionist and progressive tides. As a result, Israel cannot rely on external advocacy to safeguard its interests; it must take the initiative now.

The Case for Immediate Action

Israel’s best course of action is clear: it must act unilaterally to topple the Ayatollahs’ regime and neutralize Iran’s ideological and nuclear threats. Pulverizing Qom, the epicenter of Iran’s theocratic power, would deliver a decisive blow to the regime’s legitimacy and infrastructure. Such an action would serve multiple purposes:

  • Restoring Deterrence: A successful strike would reaffirm Israel’s military supremacy in the region and deter future aggression from Iran and its proxies.
  • Strengthening Regional Alliances: Demonstrating resolve against Iran would solidify Israel’s partnerships with Sunni Arab states, which share its concerns about Tehran’s ambitions.
  • Preempting U.S. Constraints: Acting now would allow Israel to operate without the constraints of seeking approval from the incoming administration. Both Biden and Trump could claim credit for the outcome while deflecting blame for any escalation.

A Unique Opportunity

The current geopolitical moment offers Israel a rare convergence of factors that favor decisive action. The Biden administration is concluding its term and is unlikely to impose significant constraints on Israeli operations. Meanwhile, Trump’s incoming team, preoccupied with domestic priorities and transition efforts, would struggle to coordinate an immediate response. This liminal period provides Israel with the autonomy it needs to strike at the heart of Iran’s regime.

The Risks of Inaction

Failure to act within this critical time frame would leave Israel vulnerable to a rapidly shifting geopolitical environment. Once Trump assumes office, his administration’s focus on securing a “grand bargain” in the Middle East could force Israel into a corner. A peace deal based on the Saudi Plan would undermine Israel’s territorial integrity and security, leaving it exposed to Iranian aggression. Moreover, any delay would allow Iran to further entrench its nuclear program, narrowing the window for effective intervention.

Conclusion

With less than a week remaining before the Trump administration takes office, the time to act is now. By targeting the Ayatollahs’ regime and neutralizing Iran’s nuclear ambitions, Israel can secure its future and demonstrate its resolve to the world. Inaction, on the other hand, risks leaving Israel isolated and vulnerable, forced to navigate an increasingly hostile geopolitical landscape. The stakes could not be higher, and the window of opportunity is rapidly closing.

Rafael Castro is a graduate of Yale and Hebrew University. An independent political analyst, Rafael can be reached at rafaelcastro78@gmail.com