Recently, it was reported in Azerbaijan that Steve Witkoff, the U.S. Middle East envoy during the Trump administration, visited the Azerbaijani capital, Baku. Details of this important visit have thus far only been published by the Azerbaijani side, while the U.S. has remained silent on the matter. The American secrecy has led Azerbaijani citizens to wonder and speculate about the discussions during the visit and what political issues were addressed. Initially, since the visit coincided with warm statements from Baku and Yerevan regarding their long-standing conflict, people in Azerbaijan wondered if the visit was aimed at advancing negotiations for normalization between the two rival nations. A post by U.S. National Security Advisor, Mike Waltz, reinforced this line of thinking. The post stated: “Conflict in the South Caucasus must end. I spoke with Mr. Hikmet Hajiyev, the national security advisor for President Aliyev in Azerbaijan. We are pleased Azerbaijan and Armenia have taken a big step forward and agreed to a peace treaty. I told him we should finalize this peace deal now, release the prisoners, and work together to make the region more secure and prosperous. America's Golden Age will bring peace and prosperity to the world, and we won't stop working until that happens". However, despite this, it’s not entirely clear that this was the purpose of the American envoy's visit, especially considering he is responsible for Middle Eastern affairs in the U.S. administration. Many in Azerbaijan speculated that the visit was actually meant to strengthen the emerging trilateral alliance between the United States, Israel, and Azerbaijan. Just a few days before Witkoff’s visit, reports emerged in Azerbaijan about the growing alliance between the United States, Israel, and Azerbaijan, Israel’s desire to officially include Azerbaijan in the Abraham Accords, and calls from rabbis to repeal Section 907, which prevents the U.S. from providing optimal aid to Azerbaijan (due to the conflict with Armenia). If indeed the purpose of Witkoff's visit to Baku was to strengthen the trilateral alliance between the U.S., Israel, and Azerbaijan, this would be great news for all Western supporters in the Middle East. Azerbaijan has become a very important country in the region due to its inherent geo-strategic advantages. Azerbaijan is a Shia Muslim-majority country, and yet, it is not politically influenced by Iran, while also maintaining close and strong relations with Israel. Azerbaijan, a country that was once part of the Soviet Union and shares a northern border with Russia, has managed to retain its independence and voice in all matters. This is evident in its defiance towards Russia regarding the passenger plane crash in December. If Azerbaijan were under Russian control, it would not have been so vocal in blaming Russia for the crash. Moreover, Azerbaijan’s commitment to the West and to Israel is not just rhetoric: the country has long recognized the State of Israel and has already opened an official embassy in Israel, which is not something one would expect when considering Azerbaijan’s background and its neighboring countries. Beyond Azerbaijan’s relations with Israel and the United States, whether together or separately, Azerbaijan is a pro-Western country in its own right, as it engages in energy trade relations with the European Union. Given all of the above, it’s clear why Azerbaijan is currently positioned as an ideal regional mediator. It is a Muslim country with a complex relationship with Russia and Iran, although it still maintains relations with both countries despite the complexities involved, and on the other hand, has ties with the West and a strong friendship with Israel and America. Therefore, it’s not illogical that Azerbaijan will eventually mediate between Russia and the U.S., and between Iran and Israel. The U.S. strategy to officially bring Azerbaijan into the Western camp, while positioning it as a regional mediator, could work and lead to a calmer and quieter future, but it is not perfect by any means. First, this strategy has indeed strengthened Azerbaijan’s military power and autonomy as an independent state that does not fold every time one of its neighbors (in this case, Russia) bangs on the table. However, within this strategy, Baku has refrained from dealing with the peace agreement with the Armenians, leaving negotiations and peace talks to Russia, which has bolstered its position as a mediator in regional conflicts. Secondly, as Azerbaijan is being positioned as a regional mediator, there is concern about the sensitivity of each issue it is expected to mediate between the sides and the potential for an explosion on a particular issue that could harm Azerbaijan’s image and credibility as a mediator. For example, if Azerbaijan comes under heavy pressure to take a stance on the Russia-Ukraine conflict, an incorrect answer to the wrong ears, or even an ambiguous or overly vague response, could render Azerbaijan an unreliable mediator on the global stage. Furthermore, any military cooperation between Azerbaijan and Israel, or even rumors of Azerbaijan assisting Israel with intelligence activities along its border with Iran, could provoke Iran and escalate the remaining issues in the Shia Crescent, particularly in Iraq, Lebanon, Yemen, and the Gaza Strip. This is the drawback when dealing with such fragile issues. As mentioned, Azerbaijan is a country that acts in all directions, never hesitating or being pressured to annoy any regional power, and sticks to its course of managing its affairs without external interference. Thus, we can witness Azerbaijan hosting peace talks with Armenia under the mediation of the European Union, while simultaneously operating within the Eurasian Economic Union under Russia's patronage. Most likely, Witkoff’s visit to Azerbaijan was meant to bolster Azerbaijan's ability to maneuver between these parallel channels and plan additional areas of influence where it could act for the benefit of the West and regional peace. The American visit, like the Trump administration's approach, shows that the United States is now operating through alliances based on the parties' clear interests. The American goal, and that of the businessman-turned-diplomat leading it, is peace—without wars and conflicts. Therefore, they are willing to offer each party what it wants in exchange for industrial peace and committed cooperation. However, the Americans will need to successfully navigate between several factors that do not always align (to put it mildly), and many of these have a bloody history (such as the clear example of Azerbaijan and Armenia). We can only hope that the "business approach" of the U.S. and Azerbaijan’s ability to maneuver between opposing yet parallel channels will bring peace and tranquility to the region, something that has long been forgotten and is nowhere in sight in the Middle East and South Caucasus. Rachel Avraham is the CEO of the Dona Gracia Center for Diplomacy and an Israel-based journalist. She is the author of “Women and Jihad: Debating Palestinian Female Suicide Bombings in the American, Israeli and Arab Media.”
