Syrian fighters load an artillery near Idlib
Syrian fighters load an artillery near IdlibReuters

Dr. Yossi Mansharof, a researcher on Iran, Hezbollah, and Shiite militias at the Misgav Institute for National Security and Zionist Strategy, responded Saturday night to the Syrian rebels' advances and gains following their surprise attack earlier this week.

Dr. Mansharof, in lengthy thread on X, formerly Twitter, explained, "First of all, the connection to the war in Lebanon: It seems that the rebel groups have identified the opportunity created for them with the end of the war in Lebanon, which sucked the strength of Iran and Hezbollah, and the entanglement of the Russians in their war with Ukraine."

"The outbreak of the campaign of conquest immediately following the cessation of the battles in Lebanon forced the Iranians to claim that this was an Israeli plot intended to cover up the 'Israeli defeat in Lebanon.' But the truth is, Tehran would have anyways tagged the rebels as doing the will of Israel and the US, so as to render their blood worthless and advance the war of elimination against them."

According to Mansharof, it is unlikely that Russia will be able to significantly impact the war, such that Iran itself is likely to send forces from among its proxies to do the job instead.

"Sources told Charles Lister (of the Middle East Institute in Syria - ed.) that Assad is in Moscow. These quick developments on the battlefield require his return to Damascus to manage the war. It is not clear if he returned on a flight which left tonight from Moscow to Damascus. It seems he was forced to stay in Moscow as this time, since his return to Damascus would involve a risk to his personal security."

In a conflicting report on Saturday night, however, the Syrian site Kol Habira reported that Syrian President Bashar al-Assad had returned to Damascus after a visit to Moscow.

Mansharof also warned that Israel must ensure that Iran does not utilize the situation in Syria to pass weapons to Lebanon by means of Syria.

"Israel's interest right now is to wear down Hezbollah and Iran in the civil war in Syria, and obviously to ensure that the renewed fighting in the southern Syrian Golan Heights does not spill over to Israel," he concluded.

Last week, in an op-ed on i24NEWS, Mansharof warned that the Iranian regime may be looking to launch a ground invasion of Israel from the Syrian Golan Heights.

In his article, dated November 21 - before the ceasefire agreement between Lebanon and Israel, and prior to the Syrian rebels' offensive - Mansharof quoted the daily Khorasan, which that day had called on the Iranian regime to launch such a ground invasion.

According to Khorasan, pro-Iranian Shiite militias are already deployed in the area, and Assad would likely approve such an action to "liberate" the Golan Heights. Such an offensive is likely already being planned, the daily added, bringing as proof that such a plan was discussed in Tehran meetings between Iranian and Syrian officials. However, Khorasan suggested that Assad's life might be at risk if such a plan were to be implemented, and called on Iran to protect him from Israel.

Among the forces which could join such an offensive are the Imam Hussein Division, pro-Iranian militias of the Afghan Fatemiyoun, the Pakistani Zainabiyoun, and Lebanese Hezbollah operating in Syria. Mansharof also added that "dozens" of Houthi operatives have, in recent months, taken the initiative to invade Israel via the Syrian border, and Tehran may find these operatives useful if it wishes to advance such an invasion.

Concluding his op-ed, Mansharof urged: "Israel cannot ignore that Tehran is again toying with the idea of ​​planning a ground invasion of Israel. Alongside the continued IDF initiative on the Syrian side of the border, Israel must prepare diplomatically and militarily to make it clear to both Iran and Assad that they will bear all consequences if the plan is implemented."