Israel stands on the precipice of a decisive victory over its adversaries. As the military campaign in Gaza resumes, Hamas finds itself with almost no options and even fewer allies. Its infrastructure is decimated and its argument that the war with Israel was over has been unraveled. Meanwhile, the Houthis are preoccupied with their own battles against U.S. forces. Hezbollah finds itself deeply wounded and withdrawn from southern Lebanon and Syria and unable to help Hamas. Similarly Iran is in no position to help or support Hamas at this time. Israel, undeterred, continues its operations in Gaza, while Hamas struggles to assert any meaningful control.
This decisive shift is further reinforced by a looming geopolitical earthquake: the Saudi-Israel-U.S. normalization deal. The Arab world is realigning, and Hamas—along with Iran and its proxies—can see the writing on the wall. Adding to this in a stunning reversal, Cairo has shown signs that it is considering allowing up to half a million Palestinian Arabs to “temporarily” resettle in the Sinai. This may be more than just a policy shift; it could be an admission that Gaza, as it once was, is no longer viable.
It remains to be seen whether this will come to pass, but if it ends up being true, this would be no small concession. At the core of this possible shift is the simple fact that as long as Hamas refuses to surrender hostages and relinquish control, no meaningful reconstruction in Gaza can take place. Israel has shown no indication that it will cease military operations while Hamas has shown no willingness to de-arm, evacuate or return all the hostages.
Meanwhile, reports indicate that Somaliland has agreed to take in Palestinian Arab refugees, further eliminating the argument that Gaza cannot be emptied of its terrorist rulers. Slowly but surely, the pieces may be falling into place for a long-term solution that neutralizes Hamas once and for all.
With the newly appointed IDF Chief of Staff, Eyal Zamir, Israel is poised to complete its mission. Paradoxically, the primary opposition to Israel’s march toward victory comes from within the country itself. Elements of the Israeli left, segments of the retired military establishment, and certain political factions continue to resist the full realization of this military and strategic objective. However, the return of 198 out of 250 hostages is a testament to the effectiveness of Israel’s operations and its willingness to engage in “deals” with its barbaric enemies to secure its people.
It is important for the whole society to recognize that the status quo of partial victories where reservists are required to return to the same positions every four to six years is untenable and is not fair to those reservists and to Israeli society at large.
The broader strategic landscape only reinforces this total victory. The Trump administration’s unflinching support for Israel—its direct action against the Houthis in Yemen, its maximum pressure campaign on Iran, and its willingness to “open the gates of hell” on Hamas—has provided Israel with a perfect window to complete what it started. It is no coincidence that Israel’s Defense Minister Yisrael Katz has recently reiterated the same message: if Hamas does not return every last hostage, “The gates of hell will open.”
It is now clearer than ever that Hamas’ October 7 attack was not just an act of barbaric terror—it was an act of desperation. They saw normalization between Israel and Saudi Arabia coming and recognized it as the final nail in the coffin of the so-called Arab-Israeli conflict. They understood what that meant for their prospects at realizing their dreams of destroying Israel and as a result their brutal assault was a last-ditch effort akin to a hail-Mary pass (in American football) to stop it.
As events continue to unfold, Israel’s position continues to reveal itself. The world is witnessing the final unraveling of Hamas, the crumbling of Iran’s regional proxies, and the emergence of a new Middle East order. Israel is winning decisively
The only question that remains is whether Israeli society can realize this and allow itself to complete the victory or will allow for internal discord to squander what could be a defining victory. Israel is on the last leg of a long marathon and it needs to be patient to realize that the finish line is right around the corner.
